Commentary | Monika, Fragmented Vote Share Or Restored Democracy?: Current Analysis of Indian Democracy
The political environment in India over the last few decades has gone through several unpredictable trends. Putting an end to more than three decades (1977-2014) of coalition politics, the Bharatiya Janata Party (India’s People Party, often known as right wing party), emerged as the single largest political party in the 2014 Parliamentary elections with a majority to form a government under the leadership of Narendra Modi. BJP has continued to witness a peak in terms of its vote and seat share in the 2019 Parliamentary elections of India, prompting political analysts and liberal advocates to term Indian democracy as dying, while noting a rise of ethnic democracy, a push to majoritarianism, and a surge of Hindu nationalism.
However, June 4, 2024 is known as Democracy Day in India, completing its 18th national parliamentary election. Nearly one billion voters were called to participate in a six-week long election, widely anticipated to result in resounding victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Nevertheless, political dynamics reversed, with no political party securing a majority to form the government, and coalition politics resurfaced. Still, BJP with its National Democratic Alliance formed the government. As a result, Narendra Modi returned to power for his third term as Prime Minister. This election signaled a fundamental political shift, with some scholars responding by interpreting the results as a sign of the rise of a new republic or the return of coalition politics, while still others saw it as a restoration of democracy based on secular principles.
Although the interpretations of political analysts and Indologists suggested that the BJP experienced a setback in 2024 elections, it is imperative to scrutinize the voting share trends of both the BJP and the opposition party, INC. While the BJP’s number of seats has fluctuated over the last three elections, the party’s overall voting share has remained relatively stable over the 2019 and 2024 elections with only a small one percent adjustment. According to the Statista report of 2023, the BJP stands as the largest political party in the world in terms of voting share and membership.
India employs the first past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, meaning that seats are awarded to the candidate with the largest number of votes in each constituency rather than according to proportional representation of the total vote share. Consequently, even as the BJP's vote share has consistently increased over the decades, this does not always reflect a commensurate increase in the number of seats won. Still, the increase in voting share support nonetheless highlights the party's expanding base and organizational strength.
The disparity between vote share and seat share extends beyond a mere numerical anomaly: it bears significant implications for popular support and democratic legitimacy while influencing our understanding of Indian democracy. In an ideal proportional representation (PR) system, the BJP’s vote share would have translated more directly into parliamentary seats, potentially altering the outcome of the 2024 elections. This discrepancy calls for a deeper examination of the electoral framework and its impact on democratic representation in India.
How can this be explained? The answer lies in understanding the fragmentation of vote share in constituencies resulting in a loss of seats. The fragmentation of the vote share resulted in a loss of majority for the BJP, particularly in the northern and northwestern regions, traditionally considered strongholds for the party.
Spatial Variation of Vote Share
The Indian National Congress (INC), a major opposition party to the BJP, has not experienced notable fluctuations in vote share. In the 2014 general elections, the INC secured 19.5% of the vote share, translating to 44 seats. By the 2019 elections, its vote share slightly increased to 19.7%, resulting in 52 seats. In the 2024 elections, the Congress saw a mere 2% increase in vote share but received a seat count jump to 99 seats.
In contrast, out of 543 total seats where a majority requires 272 seats, the BJP won 282 seats with a 31.34% vote share in 2014, 303 seats with a 37.46% vote share in 2019. However, when the BJP lost their majority in 2024, they won 240 seats with a 36.56% vote share. Thus, in the case of the BJP, an approximately 1% loss of vote share from 2019 resulted in the loss of 40 seats.
This discrepancy between vote share and seat share challenges our understanding of democratic legitimacy and representation. While the BJP’s continued high vote share and resonant messaging with voters might suggest strong popular support, the reduction in seat count amid a relatively stable vote share indicates that the party’s representation may not fully align with voter preferences. Conversely, the INC's increase in seat count with a modest vote share increase suggestss a potential shift in the political landscape.
The BJP's performance reveals regional variations, with the party gaining in some southern states but experiencing setbacks in the Hindi heartland and other high-stakes regions. Significant defeat in Uttar Pradesh, which historically supported the BJP in previous elections and was instrumental in its rise, has major implications for the party's future.
“Seat count analysis complicates the assessment of party legitimacy and may misguide analysts in tracing the true reality, the party’s positioning, and voter sentiment. ”
At the same time, the BJP's vote share expansion in the southern region, in states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, where the party and its partners have achieved substantial election triumphs, is critical because it dispels the myth that the BJP is only popular in Hindi belt and northern party and creates new political opportunities. Other southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have historically opposed the Hindutva philosophy of the BJP and its ties to the Hindi language and culture. Consequently, winning support in these states is essential for the BJP to make headway in terms of both electoral gains and a change in public perception of its political agenda.
The BJP's rise in the Northeast, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, demonstrates complicated political processes and uneven popular support. Meanwhile, Tripura appeared to be an uncommon situation in recent elections, necessitating further study. Furthermore, the BJP's progress in West Bengal provides hopeful signs for the party's expansion strategy.
Thus, mere seats count assessment may not provide an nuanced picture to the study of electoral dynamics and shifting political realities. Instead, seat count analysis complicates the assessment of party legitimacy and may misguide analysts in tracing the true reality, the party’s positioning, and voter sentiment. Henceforth, a critical examination of vote shares is essential for a comprehensive understanding of BJP support, as well as of political representation in a vast country like India.
Restored Democracy ?
Another common interpretation drawn from India’s general election 2024 was the triumph of Indian democracy after decades of Hindu nationalist politics as BJP lost its sole majority and was forced to rely on coalition politics to form a government.
Following independence in 1947, the Indian National Congress (INC) became the dominant political force, achieving overwhelming electoral success under Jawaharlal Nehru's leadership. This era was marked by one-party dominance, with the INC holding near-monopoly control over political power at both national and state levels. The late 1960s signaled the decline of Congress's dominance, as the 1967 general elections saw significant gains by opposition parties, leading to the formation of coalition governments in several states. This period witnessed political fragmentation and realignment, highlighted by the rise of regional parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and the brief disruption of Congress dominance by the Janata Party in the late 1970s. The 1989 general elections ushered in the coalition era, with no single party able to secure a clear majority, resulting in the formation of coalition governments. This trend was exemplified by the National Front, United Front, and later the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The 2014 general elections marked a significant shift, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi's leadership securing a decisive majority, thus ending the coalition era at the national level.
Indeed the 2024 parliamentary election marked the end of a decade of one-party dominance, and return of coalition politics under Modi, which failed to secure a majority to form the government. Despite the BJP-led NDA having sufficient numbers to govern, the election results signal a decline in the so-called 'Modi magic' that previously ensured electoral success. Several factors contributed to the BJP's diminished performance: ineffective social engineering, failed mobilization efforts, over-centralization within the party, and inconsistent anti-corruption rhetoric. Additionally, the party's shifting narratives and focus on Hindu-Muslim issues failed to resonate in the context of economic distress. The party's losses in key towns associated with Lord Ram, such as Ayodhya and Chitrakoot, suggest a failure of this strategy.
Conclusion
It is premature to interpret the BJP's seat losses as a decline of Narendra Modi’s political influence and strategy. The election results indeed reflect a resurgence of regional parties and a revitalization of the Indian National Congress. However, a closer analysis indicates that there has been no significant fluctuation in the BJP's overall vote share. The observed changes result from the fragmentation of vote share in northern constituencies and an expansion of support in southern states.
Indian political history demonstrates that coalition politics have had a dual impact. On one hand, coalition politics have led to the fall of governments; on the other, they have increased governmental accountability, though often at the cost of political stability. Therefore, interpreting these dynamics as a mere restoration of democracy requires nuance. Applying Western frameworks to analyze Indian democracy can be misleading, given India's unique socio-political landscape shaped by over 5,000 years of history. A deeper understanding of Indian democracy necessitates a consideration of its indigenous historical and cultural context rather than relying solely on external yardsticks.
Monika is a research scholar at Indian Institute of Technology Indore India. She is also a visiting scholar at Boston University USA. Her research interests include Nationalism, Democracy and Caste in India. She wrote several blog articles for USANAS foundation India, Down to Earth, and London School of Economics Blog site. She also wrote research articles on nationalism and the caste order in India currently under review.
To cite this essay,please use the entry provided below:
Monika, “Fragmented Vote Share Or Restored Democracy?: Current Analysis of Indian Democracy,” criticalasianstudies.org Commentary Board, August 27, 2024. https://doi.org/10.52698/XVTE3475.