Commentary | Monika, Decoding Delhi’s Assembly Election 2025: Why the BJP’s Win Reflects AAP’s Decline, Not Hindutva’s Rise
The recent electoral victory of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi, marking its return to power in the capital after a 27-year hiatus from the state assembly, has ignited extensive scholarly debate. Many electoral analysts, political scientists as well as supporters of BJP have rushed to conclude that this victory signifies the resonance of Hindutva politics or Hindu nationalism middle-class population of Delhi. However, a closer assessment of the political dynamics, the rise and fall of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), former ruling party which ruled the capital for a decade, and the broader socio-political landscape in Delhi reveals a different reality.
To understand the implications of this election, it is important to contextualize the term Saffron politics. In the Indian political lexicon, "Saffron" symbolizes Hindu nationalism, an ideology that seeks to define Indian culture and identity in predominantly Hindu terms. The BJP, as the principal political vehicle of this ideology, has often been associated with the promotion of Hindu-centric policies and narratives, which critics argue marginalize religious minorities and secular principles. The saffron color, deeply rooted in Hindu religious and cultural traditions, has become a metaphor for this political ideology. The BJP’s electoral successes in recent years, including its dominance in national politics since 2014, have been widely interpreted as a sign of the growing acceptance of Hindutva as a unifying force in India’s diverse society. However, in the 2024 parliamentary elections, the BJP lost its majority in the Lok Sabha and had to form a coalition government, making the 2025 Delhi election a critical test of its resurgence.
Thus, the BJP’s decisive victory in Delhi’s 2025 elections is critical from several perspectives. Firstly, AAP, once celebrated as an anti-corruption movement, faced a credibility crisis due to scandals like the liquor scam, the Delhi Jal Board scam, and the arrest of top leaders in corruption charges. Secondly, AAP’s failure to deliver on promises of a welfare state, coupled with negligence during health emergencies, breakdowns in cleanliness initiatives, and a lack of infrastructure development, alienated voters. Thirdly, an intriguing dynamic that has consistently puzzled electoral analysts is Delhi voters’ split preferences in recent elections. In both the 2015 and 2020 state assembly elections, voters overwhelmingly chose the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to govern Delhi, while simultaneously favoring Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in national elections for the Prime Minister and Member of Parliament. This dual voting pattern highlights the complexity of Delhi’s electorate, which appears to distinguish between state and national leadership, prioritizing local governance under AAP while maintaining strong support for Modi’s leadership at the national level.
However, this commentary argues that the BJP’s victory cannot be simplistically attributed to the rise of Saffron politics or the triumph of Hindutva ideology. Instead, it reflects the AAP’s declining credibility, stemming from internal contradictions within the party such as the case of Swati Maliwal, its failure to deliver on promises of a welfare state, negligence during health emergencies, breakdowns in cleanliness initiatives, and a lack of infrastructure development. These shortcomings were further exacerbated by the persistent conflict between the Delhi government and the Lieutenant Governor (LG), as well as AAP’s tendency to play the victim card when faced with accountability. BJP’s return to power after nearly three decades is undoubtedly a remarkable achievement but is less an endorsement of Hindutva by Delhi’s voters and more a consequence of AAP’s inability to maintain its image as a corruption-free, development-oriented party. By examining the election within the broader context of Indian democracy, this analysis highlights governance failures and political credibility crises, rather than ideological shifts, shaped the BJP’s resurgence in Delhi.
The Rise of AAP: A Promise of Corruption-Free Governance
The rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi’s political arena is a compelling narrative of grassroots mobilization, strategic policymaking, and a commitment to transparent governance. Emerging from the 2011 anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, AAP positioned itself as a people-centric alternative to the Indian National Congress (INC), which was grappling with widespread public disillusionment due to high-profile corruption scandals. The INC-led UPA government at the centre was embroiled in controversies such as the 2G spectrum scam, the Commonwealth Games scam, and the coal allocation scam, which severely eroded public trust in the party. This anti-corruption sentiment, coupled with growing dissatisfaction with the Congress government in Delhi, created a fertile ground for AAP’s emergence.
In its electoral debut in 2013, AAP made an impressive impact, winning 28 seats and forming a short-lived government with Congress support. However, its defining moment came in 2015, when it achieved a landslide victory, securing 67 out of 70 seats. This remarkable success was built on a platform of inclusive governance, anti-corruption measures, and innovative welfare schemes. Promises such as free electricity (up to 200 units) and free water (20,000 litres per household) resonated strongly with both middle-class and low-income voters, establishing AAP as a party that prioritized the needs of the common man.
AAP’s focus on improving public services, particularly in education and healthcare, further strengthened its appeal. Initiatives like Mohalla Clinics, which provided free primary healthcare, and the transformation of government schools into model institutions were widely praised. The party’s ability to connect with the common man, coupled with Arvind Kejriwal’s image as an honest and accessible leader, helped it secure a second consecutive term in 2020 with 62 seats. However, over time, challenges began to surface. Allegations of corruption, governance lapses, and unresolved civic issues such as air pollution and infrastructure decay started to erode public confidence. By the 2025 elections, AAP’s vote share had declined, reflecting the growing anti-incumbency sentiment and the BJP’s resurgence.
What went wrong with AAP in 2025?
Corruption Charges: A Blow to AAP’s Anti-Corruption Image
One of the most damaging factors for AAP was the erosion of its anti-corruption image, which had been the cornerstone of its rise to power. Union Minister Amit Shah’s jibe, dubbing AAP the “Avaidh Aamdaniwali Party” (Party of Illicit Income), encapsulated the BJP’s narrative that Kejriwal’s crusade against corruption had lost its credibility. Allegations of financial misconduct, particularly the Delhi excise policy scam, where illicit funds were allegedly used to fuel AAP’s expansion, tarnished the party’s reputation.
Further controversy emerged over the extravagant renovation of Kejriwal’s official residence, mockingly dubbed "Sheesh Mahal" by the opposition, which contradicted his promises of simplicity and austerity. For a leader who had positioned himself as the voice of the “aam aadmi” (common man), these allegations dealt a severe blow to his credibility and the trustworthiness of his party. The corruption charges not only alienated AAP’s core supporters but also provided ample ammunition for the BJP to attack the party relentlessly during the campaign.
AAP’s reputation as a corruption-free party was severely shaken when senior leaders, including Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Health Minister Satyendar Jain, were arrested on corruption charges. The party, however, claimed that these allegations were politically motivated and orchestrated by the BJP. Arvind Kejriwal’s response to the accusations often appeared defensive and unconvincing.
BJP’s Political Strategy: Exploiting AAP’s Weaknesses
The BJP, as the principal opposition party in Delhi, skillfully exploited AAP’s weaknesses. The allegations of corruption against AAP leaders were amplified by the BJP’s well-oiled propaganda machinery, which used social media, traditional media, and public rallies to paint AAP as a party that had betrayed its founding principles. The BJP’s narrative was simple but effective: AAP, which had come to power on the promise of fighting corruption, was now mired in corruption itself.
The BJP also capitalized on the constant tussle between the Delhi government and the Lieutenant Governor (LG), who is appointed by the central government. The LG’s office, which has significant control over Delhi’s administration, often clashed with the AAP government, leading to delays in decision-making and implementation of policies. As one voter remarked, “If AAP returns to power, its leaders will once again blame the BJP-led central government for obstructing their work. If that’s going to continue, we might as well give BJP a chance in Delhi—at least we’ll see some change.
A Growing Disconnect with Voters
In media interviews, rather than presenting a strong defense of his party and its leaders, Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of Delhi frequently resorted to whataboutery — deflecting criticism by highlighting corruption in other parties, particularly referencing the BJP’s recently disclosed anonymous donations as electoral bonds. This attitude failed to convince the broader electorate, a section of the middle class, emerging youth which had initially supported AAP for its promise of clean governance.
Delhi’s electoral landscape is unique in India due to the numerical and electoral heft of its middle class. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey, 56% of Delhi’s workforce is salaried, compared to the national average of 22%. This middle class, largely composed of upper and dominant caste groups, is tethered by shared aspirations for mobility, governance concerns, and everyday civic requirements. Unlike in other parts of the country, where the middle class is often numerically outgunned, Delhi’s middle class holds significant electoral influence. Historically, Delhi’s middle class has exhibited a bipolar voting pattern, swinging between the BJP in national elections and AAP in state elections. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the middle class overwhelmingly supported the BJP, driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal and the party’s nationalist rhetoric. In contrast, the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections saw a decisive shift toward AAP, fueled by Kejriwal’s promises of improved civic services and transparent governance. However, in the recent elections, the pendulum swung back to the BJP, as the middle class grew disillusioned with AAP’s governance failures. While initiatives like free electricity, free bus rides for women, healthcare through Mohalla clinics, and free education and water were popular, they were no longer enough to mask the party’s failure to address broader urban challenges. As a result, the party that once symbolized change and hope found itself struggling to retain its core support base.
Also, despite two consecutive terms in power, AAP failed to address some of Delhi’s most pressing civic issues, including air pollution, water shortages, and crumbling infrastructure. While Kejriwal often blamed the Modi-led central government for these problems, voters grew increasingly frustrated with the lack of tangible progress. On polling day, many expressed their dissatisfaction, with one voter stating, “There is no development in Delhi. We don’t want AAP again.”
Fig 1: Number of seats counts from 2013-2024 Delhi assemble elections of AAP, BJP and INC
Source: Made by author using data from https://www.indiavotes.com/
A Victory of Political Strategy, Not Ideology
While many assume that the rise of the BJP in Delhi—a hub of central politics—would pave the way for a defining Hindutva roadmap, the reality is far more complex. The city's heterogeneous middle-class population, with its diverse aspirations and priorities, presents significant challenges to such a straightforward narrative.
While a section of the middle class may resonate with the BJP’s Hindutva ideology, it is not the primary factor driving their voting behavior. The middle class in Delhi is more concerned with issues such as governance, public services, and quality of life. AAP’s initial success was largely due to its focus on these issues, rather than any ideological appeal.
"Similarly, the BJP's gains in 2025 were not solely driven by its Hindutva agenda but were largely fueled by its strategic focus on class-specific appeals, particularly targeting the middle class." The Union government’s move to offer major tax breaks in the Union Budget just four days before polling, coupled with the expected windfall for government workers from the 8th Pay Commission, must have appealed for BJP appeal among salaried voters. The BJP’s campaign in the Delhi elections highlighted tangible governance issues, such as air pollution, garbage management, and road conditions, forcing AAP to confront the inconvenient truths of Delhi’s urban decay. Unlike its solely Hindutva oriented state in neighboring states like Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, marked a significant departure.
The BJP’s strategic shift, BJP, similar to Aap in the Delhi elections, focused on a wide range of freebies targeting various voter groups. For women, the party promised the Mahila Samridhi Yojana, offering monthly financial aid of ₹2,500, along with ₹21,000 for pregnant women under the Chief Minister Matritva Suraksha Yojana. Senior citizens were assured pensions of ₹2,500 for those aged 60-70 and ₹3,000 for those above 70. In healthcare, the BJP pledged to implement the Ayushman Bharat Yojana, providing health coverage of ₹10 lakh. The BJP also promised free electricity up to 200 units, with a 50% subsidy beyond that, and nutritious meals at ₹5 through Atal Canteens in slum areas. Additionally, the party committed to continuing free bus rides for women and expanding the PM SVANidhi scheme to benefit more street vendors. This approach opened up an option for Delhi voters who did not want to move away from the freebie model while also addressing their disappointment with AAP’s governance.
Fig 2: Vote Share percentage of INC, AAP and BJP
Source: Made by author using data from https://www.indiavotes.com/
A positive and reassuring factor for AAP is that it continues to retain a significant portion of the voter share, which could potentially translate into a majority of seats in future elections. This stands in stark contrast to its counterpart, the Indian National Congress (INC), which has been reduced to a single digit vote share (see Fig. 2). While the middle class swung decisively in favor of the BJP, the poor and marginalized continued to support AAP, contributing to the party’s 43% vote share. These voters, many of whom are poorest strata, working-class migrants, domestic workers, wage laborers, and residents of unauthorized colonies, form the electoral backbone of AAP. The party’s targeted welfare schemes, such as free electricity and water, have nurtured this demographic into a potent vote base. Despite a seven-percentage point dip in AAP’s popularity among Dalit communities, the party still won eight of the 12 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes. This enduring support underscores the importance of welfare politics in sustaining electoral support among marginalized groups.
Thus, BJP’s victory in the recent elections should not be interpreted as a wholesale endorsement of Hindutva by Delhi’s middle class. Instead, it is a reflection of the BJP’s ability to exploit AAP’s weaknesses and present itself as a credible alternative. The middle class in Delhi remains pragmatic, prioritizing governance and development over ideology. The BJP’s victory is, therefore, a victory of political strategy, not ideology.
Monika, a Delhi-born researcher, is passionate about Indian politics, society, culture, and electoral studies. She serves as a visiting PhD and Teaching Assistant at Boston University, USA, and holds the position of Senior Research Fellow at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Indore, India. Her work has been featured in various platforms, including blog articles for the USANAS Foundation India, Down to Earth, the London School of Economics Blog, and the Critical Asian Studies Commentary Board. Currently, she is engaged in editing her upcoming volume, Democracy Deficit: A Civilizational Perspective, which is set to be published by Wiley Blackwell.