Commentary | Raj Verma, Modi and the COVID-19 catastrophe
India is being ravaged by a second COVID-19 wave. As of last week, India had approximately 28.5 million infections and more than 340,000 deaths, although experts are unanimous that the death rate is under reported and the actual count is much higher. Print, television and social media have highlighted the suffering of people. Television news channels have broadcast heart-breaking images of people begging for oxygen, admission into hospitals and beds for their friends and relatives, and standing in queues for hours for life saving medicines, ventilators and refilling of oxygen cylinders. Tens of thousands have died simply because they could not get access to oxygen and timely treatment. The Narendra Modi government’s vaccination drive has also hit a road block and there is an acute shortage of vaccines across India.
“Could this suffering, these deaths, have been avoided?...the Modi government is responsible for exacerbating the second wave and the suffering of people because of its disastrous response.”
The question that arises is could this suffering, these deaths, have been avoided? Could the Modi administration have done better? I argue that not only could the second wave have been prevented, but also the Modi government is responsible for exacerbating the second wave and the suffering of people because of its disastrous response. While the Modi administration’s complacency, inaction, and hubris are responsible for its failure to prevent the second wave, missteps, callousness, poor planning, and obfuscations further compounded the crisis.
Complacency, inaction, hubris, and the COVID-19 crisis
The Modi government ignored scientific advice and became complacent as the pandemic surged through India. In October 2020, scientists warned about the emergence of B.1617 variant but the government refused to fund research to support COVID-19 testing needed to track the new variant. The government did not warn the people who became complacent. Moreover, the government indulged in triumphalism with the development of COVID vaccines in India and the commencement of the largest vaccination drive globally. On January 28, 2021, Modi addressed the World Economic Forum and declared that India had been victorious in the fight against COVID-19 and would extend help to the world by exporting vaccines manufactured in India.
The following month, Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) passed an internal resolution congratulating the central government for defeating COVID-19 under Modi’s visionary, committed, and sensitive leadership. India’s national scientific task force on COVID-19, which advises the federal/central government, did not convene at all from 11 January–15 April 2021, and in March, Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium’s reports regarding the dangerous mutant strains were downplayed by the Modi government.
Political prerogatives and Kumbh Mela: elections and the COVID-19 catastrophe
The Modi government allowed the Hindu religious festival of “kumbh mela” and elections in four states and the union territory of Puducherry despite warnings from scientists. Dr. Vijay Chauthaiwale, head of the Department of Foreign Affairs, BJP asserted that “high cases have nothing to do with religious or political gatherings.” However, studies indicate that “kumbh mela” and the elections acted as super-spreader events.
Millions of Indians gathered in April 2021 in Haridwar to celebrate the “kumbh mela” while the second wave was ravaging India. COVID protocols were flouted, which created an ideal environment for spreading COVID-19. During the festival 2,642 devotees tested COVID-19 positive, including religious leaders, according to local government officials. On April 12, the first day of the festival alone, India reported 168,000 cases and three million pilgrims took a dip in the Ganges. Reports also state that returnees from “kumbh mela” have spread COVID-19 to cities and villages across the country.
Experts had suggested cancellation of the “kumbh mela” but religious leaders argued that if elections can be held in five states, then there is no rationale to cancel the festival. The Modi government was reluctant to cancel the festival due to fear of backlash from Hindu religious leaders, who are not only the BJP’s biggest supporters but also play a vital role in mustering Hindu votes during elections. Modi only intervened on April 17, suggesting that the festival be turned symbolic after the end of the two “shahi snans” (royal baths). But the damage had been done by then with no accountability for the viral explosion.
With respect to elections, studies highlight that the infection rates increased significantly in the poll bound states during the elections. Collating data from election states and non-election states, Deepankar Basu underlines that the average number of cases were declining in both groups in January and February 2021. However, there was a reversal in the downward trajectory in cases on February 10, 2021 in non-election states. On the other hand, the downward trajectory continued in election states from February 10–March 15. The surge in infections in the election bound states occurred after March 15 and it quickly overtook the rate of infections in non-election states.
Complacency, hubris and callousness are the principal reasons for the COVID-19 catastrophe in the five states. Modi (and leaders from the BJP and other political parties) addressed large rallies and roadshows without masks and made no attempts to ask people to follow the protocol. Modi conducted rallies in the election states and led BJP’s campaign from the front in West Bengal. The BJP wanted to wrest power in West Bengal, a key battle ground which has never been governed by the BJP, at all costs. On 17 April 2021, Modi even stated that he was elated with the size of people attending his rallies despite the raging second wave and COVID protocols not being followed (NDTV 2021).
There is no logic and no constitutional emergency which stipulates that people should congregate in large numbers and flout COVID protocol. Modi (along with Union Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah and others including opposition leaders) sent a message to the masses that masks and social distancing are no longer necessary. The onus falls on Modi and Shah because they are the two most powerful political figures in the country and ought to have led by example. Their tacit approval to flout COVID restrictions was simply callous and unforgiveable when India was reporting more than 100,000 cases every day.
The elections not only acted as super-spreader events, but also affected the ability of the Modi government to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than managing the pandemic, Modi and Shah (and also the governments in the election states) were busy addressing rallies and more focused on wresting power. especially in Bengal. rather than tackling the second wave. While social media was being flooded by SOS messages, Modi was busy addressing election rallies. Contrary to other political parties, BJP did not want to stop rallies in West Bengal. Only after being severely criticized by opposition parties, did Modi and the BJP decide to stop holding huge rallies.
Central vita project and wrong priorities
While thousands of Indians are dying on a daily basis, Modi has listed the renovation of Delhi’s Central Vista as an “essential service.” This ensures that labor will be able to move smoothly to complete the project despite the lockdown in New Delhi. The approximately US$2 billion project envisions the construction of a new Parliament building, a new office and residence for the prime minister, vice president’s enclave, and a common secretariat by end of December 2022. The project symbolizes an ‘Aatm nirbhar Bharat” or self-reliant India.
Critics have labelled the project as “criminal wastage” and Modi’s pet project. Despite criticism, the project started in January 2021. The money could be used more prudently in combating COVID-19. According to one estimate, the Modi government could vaccinate 620 million people, buy 220 million Remdesvir vials, 30 million 10-liter oxygen cylinders, and construct 13 hospitals the size of the colossal All India Institute of Medical Sciences (one of the leading hospitals in India) and provide 12,000 beds for COVID-19 patients by diverting money from the project. The cost of construction of 162 oxygen plants being built by the government is around INR2 billion, which is one-tenth the cost of the Central Vista project.
More judicious use of resources could have and can save tens of thousands of lives. It could have been and can be used for social and economic rebuilding, to provide welfare payments such as cash transfers to those who have become destitute because of the COVID-19 crisis with the economy contracting by eight per cent in 2020–2021. According to a report by PEW Research Centre, the number of people living below the poverty line in India has increased from 60 million to 135 million since January 2020.
Central Vista project seems like Modi’s vanity project, a legacy project sacrificing the people’s lives over the construction of some buildings. This highlights that elites place themselves firmly above the normal people. While this is/might be acceptable in a dictatorship or one-party political system where the citizens are mere spectators, this is unacceptable in a democracy. Ironically, India has agreed to accept foreign aid after a gap of 16 years following the 2004 Asian tsunami (even from the tiny Kingdom of Bhutan), but has decided against diverting resources from the Central Vista project to combat COVID-19.
Flawed vaccination policy
Complacency by the Modi government also led to inaction and flawed policies of piecemeal procuring, distributing, and administering of vaccines. Additionally, poor planning and unregulated pricing by the central government has created huge disparities and deeply unfair competition between states to garner vaccines with the Supreme Court of India severely criticizing the Modi government’s vaccination strategy.
The Modi administration put forth an ambitious target of vaccinating 250 million people by July 2021 and initiated a policy of vaccinating people in three phases. Phase I (from 16 January 2021) aimed to inoculate frontline and healthcare workers. Phase II (from 1 April) permitted people over 45 years and those with co-morbidities to be vaccinated. Phase III (from 1 May) aims to vaccinate adults in the 18–45 years age group. Under the new policy introduced on 21 April 2021, the central government will cater to the 45 years plus group, while state governments will vaccinate the 18-45 group. However, phase II and especially phase III have hit a roadblock due to shortage of vaccines, with many states suspending phase III. The rate of vaccination has declined because India lacks sufficient vaccines to vaccinate around 1.4 billion citizens, despite being the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world. If vaccines were available in sufficient quantities, it would reduce the rate of infections and the death count.
The Modi government believed that domestic vaccines would be sufficient to meet demand and therefore did not give emergency approval to Russia’s Sputnik V or the US’ Pfizer vaccines in February 2021. Still, the Modi government lacked the foresight and planning to stock domestic vaccines. It did not ask Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer (manufactures Covishield) and BB to scale up production when the country was passing through the first wave. It placed orders with the two companies only in January 2021, and then did so in small quantities (350 million between January–May 2021) when the companies were already burdened with other supply commitments. It also did not provide advance capital to the two manufacturers to establish additional production lines and increase capacity to manufacture vaccines. It only did so belatedly on 20 April when the infections were rising rapidly.
Another flaw in the central government’s vaccination policy is to allow states to buy vaccines from the two local producers in phase III. This policy is nothing but an attempt by the Modi government to shift the burden of vaccination and its own failures to states by relinquishing its responsibility to procure vaccines for the entire country. India is the only country in the world where the federal/central government is not the sole buyer of the vaccine. As a result, this policy will increase vaccination inequality with the private hospitals (catering to the rich) able to buy vaccines at a higher price compared to the state governments. The two manufacturers will have little incentive to sell the vaccines at a lower price to the states. This will lead to the poor being deprived of the vaccines considering that a significant proportion of India’s population lives below the US$1.90 poverty line.
Due to paucity of vaccines, some state governments have placed global tenders to procure vaccines from global suppliers. The state governments are competing with each other which will increase the price of the vaccine, which will be a waste of taxpayers’ money. Additionally, they will have little bargaining power because of the smaller size of the order. Rather, the federal/central government could have held far greater leverage over pricing with domestic and foreign manufacturers which would have led to a lower price for the vaccines.
Finally, according to medical experts, the rate of infection and the death count could have been decreased significantly if the Indian government had undertaken mass testing at the town or district level, imposed strict lockdowns in areas with COVID-19 positive cases, and vaccinated en masse in areas/districts with high level of infections. However, a shortage of vaccines and the lack of deep village and district level surveillance led to India’s current crisis. It would have been more efficient if the government had gone door to door in rural areas to vaccinate people rather than relying on them to register or travel to hospitals to get vaccinated, considering that hundreds of millions in rural areas do not have access to the internet or a mobile device or are not savvy enough to register online. Moreover, they also have to travel long distances to reach hospitals at the village/district level.
Conclusion
India is being ravaged by a second wave of COVID-19 with tens of thousands of deaths and millions infected by the deadly virus. This tragedy could have been prevented if the Modi administration had not ignored scientific advice, and was competent and efficient. Indians have paid with their lives and the lives of their loved ones because of the Modi government’s maladministration, incompetence, callousness, complacency, hubris, and demagoguery. Only time will tell whether the COVID-19 catastrophe will have political repercussions for Modi and the BJP in the elections in the state of Uttar Pradesh in 2022 and the national elections in 2024.
Dr. Raj Verma is Associate Professor of International Relations and Foreign Policy at Huaqiao University in Xiamen, China, Head of Research at the Intellisia Institute in Guangzhou, China, and Adjunct Professor at Far Eastern University in Manila, the Philippines.
To cite this Commentary, please use the entry suggested below:
Raj Verma, “Modi and the COVID-19 Catastrophe,” criticalasianstudies.org Commentary Board, June 9, 2021; https://doi.org/10.52698/UAQQ1236.